Nepal’s political landscape has once again been shaken by the ever-turbulent alliance between the Nepali Congress (NC), Maoist Centre, and UML. In the latest twist, one leader has abandoned his current ally to reunite with an old one.
On Monday, the Maoists and UML formed a new left-led coalition, marking their third union since 2017. This sudden political shift leaves NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba in the opposition, joined by Madhav Nepal’s CPN-Unified Socialist.
Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and UML Chair K P Oli have rekindled their power-sharing agreement to alternate the premiership every two years until the next elections in 2027.
The new coalition includes not only UML but also Rabi Lamichhane’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and Upendra Yadav’s Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP). CK Raut’s Janamat Party is also considering joining the government.
Tensions between the NC and the Maoist had been brewing for weeks, but few anticipated the sudden split. The Maoists, despite being the third largest party in Parliament, felt sidelined by the NC’s recent General Committee meeting, where members urged the party to stand alone and criticized the Maoists for past war crimes. Now, the largest party in Parliament finds itself in opposition.
Monday saw a flurry of meetings between Prime Minister Dahal, Oli, Lamichhane, and Yadav. Despite the formation of a new Council of Ministers, the public’s reaction on social media was largely indifferent. The initial Cabinet phase includes three leaders each from the Maoists, UML, and RSP.
Commentators mocked the reshuffling, suggesting it wouldn’t address Nepal’s economic and social crises. Among the new ministers are UML Chief Whip Padam Giri, former Youth and Sports Minister Hit Bahadur Tamang from the Maoist Centre, and RSP vice-chair Dol Prasad Aryal.
Disagreements have already arisen over the Home Minister post, with both UML and RSP vying for the position. Lamichhane, who previously held the post, is pushing to reclaim it despite controversy over his American citizenship.
Dahal became Prime Minister in December 2022 after breaking a five-party coalition led by Deuba’s NC, aligning instead with K P Oli’s UML. Two months later, Dahal switched alliances again, forming a coalition with NC and CPN-Unified Socialist to share the premiership.
The fragile partnership between Dahal and Deuba ultimately fractured, exacerbated by the NC’s General Committee meeting where dissident leaders called for independence in future elections. Additional strain came from NC’s alliance with UML in Kosi Province and the loss of a key Maoist candidate in the National Assembly election.
Dahal cited the Kosi and National Assembly election circumstances and the NC-Maoist partnership discourse as reasons for the breakup. His latest political maneuver might also be a strategy to distract from his government’s underperformance and corruption scandals.
Cabinet members, including Physical Infrastructure and Transport Minister Prakash Jwala and Health and Population Minister Mohan Basnet, have been implicated in various scandals, further tarnishing the government’s image.
Dahal declared on Monday, “The country will be in turmoil until the day I die… Maoists thrive on disorganization.”
This new coalition will not only reshape domestic politics but also influence Nepal’s relations with neighbors India and China. China favors a united left in Nepal, while the US-India bloc preferred the recently dissolved Maoist-NC coalition, seen as more aligned with Indian interests.
